BITCOIN BULLS are persisting so far in holding down the 18550 support range enabling them to attain a bounce currently at 22330 range. How far are they willing to go? Can the bulls successfully change the faith of the bears from this current 18500 to 18600 support range currently bouncing? or should we expect a more catastrophic hit from the sellers act the next strong resistance range of 22800 to 23200? Can this lead to a change in trend and take Bitcoin to 28k again?
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The price range 18600 to 21k is actually a very important support range. This support also happen to be the major resistance range of the last bull market in 2017 on the weekly and monthly support.
Further look at he weekly chart shows a strong support range of 18600, we can say at least at this point that the sellers pressure is reducing. I do see a clear double bottom currently formed with a 3 bar reversal candlestick on the weekly chart a good sign that we could be getting a confirmation by 3rd week of September if the buyers are ready for some upward move as the chart below gives us a deeper overview of the buyers footprint
On the intra-day charts like the 4hrs, we see a mini bullish trend developing as also a strong volume seem to accompany it.
The volume so far has kept up with the rising price not only on the lower timeframe bur also we see the consistent rise in volume on weekly chart below
So here is a clear bullish scenario I do see here, if the current bounce persist and break above the weekly down trend resistance trendline at 22800.
and successfully holds above 23200. the will guarantee at-least a 75% chances of the buyer recovering above 24k and if the volume rise persists for couple of days after this breakout we are likely to see price heading for the $25100 range and a stop-loss hunt of all previous shorter at 26k-26800 range resistance level. Depending on the volume price might persist to hit 28k resistance as this resistance is much stronger than the 26k range resistance.
A breakout above the sellers down trendline could begin a bounce to attack the resistance of the current consolidation at 25800. thus a bounce to 26k is possible.
Weekly chart shows a 3 bar reversal pattern sitting on a strong support area accompanied by good volume below, Showing the buyers are not giving up easily here and October, November and December could be a time for some good bounce as the rest of the 2 weeks left in September will expect to print further confirmation
But what if they buyers fail to break the current weekly strong downtrend trendline at at 22800 or even if they pierce if and fail at 25200?
Because price is still trading below the downtrend trendline, Its healthy we stay open minded and not underrate the sellers capabilities just yet. What are the chances of the seller holding the buyers down or breaking below the support of 17800
The chances of seeing a bounce before any more dump is at about 69% but the remains 31% chance of breaking the 17800 support could occur either on a rejection at 22800 or at the top resistance at 24800. But worst case scenerio we could see a rejection at two possible points below.
This rejection could force a breakdown of support at 18600 and lastly at 17800 on a struggle.
This breakdown will force a down move to the 16k support.